Porch election predictions/guesses

I suppose it’s time roll out the ol’ Porch’s annual Election Day predictions.

Now, I can’t stress enough that my picks are not endorsements, recommendations, whatevers. These are just the folks I think will more than likely win in the contested primaries.

I should note that I’ve enjoyed meeting with all of the candidates. You also can check out their guest segments on Inside Tennessee RIGHT SMACK HERE.

Anyhoo, here ya go:

REPUBLICANS:

County Commission 2nd: Michele Carringer over John Fugate

Why: I think Michele has campaigned harder. Also – and this is key – when she ran for the countywide seat some time back against Ed Brantley, she apparently beat him in her district. That’s a big deal. Ed is known widely throughout the county and is more recognizable than Fugate, so I figure if she beats him, then she can beat John. That said, John is a damn nice guy based on the conversations I’ve had with him.

County Commission 4th: Hugh Nystrom defeats incumbent Jeff Ownby and Janet Testerman

Why: Hugh has really worked this campaign and knows a ton of people. Jeff obviously has that past issue, which is going to cost him, and, quite frankly, I just haven’t heard a lot about Testerman. That said, Jeff is a good commissioner who takes constituency services very seriously. He answers his phone and enjoys meeting with the people in his district.

County Commission 6th: Brad Anders easily handles John Ashley

Why: Seriously? That said the community is always better off when there are contested races because it typically creates debate. So, shout out to John for running.

Law Director: Richard “Bud” Armstrong defeats Nathan Powell

Why: Flat out, more people know Bud. And that commercial/political advertisement that Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett did for him was the killer. That said, Nathan would probably not have a problem doing the job.

Property Assessor: John Whitehead barely, barely defeats Jim Weaver. Third candidate Andrew Graybeal garners few votes.

Why: This is the toughest one for me to call, and I might change my mind tomorrow before early voting results come in. Both Weaver and Whitehead know the office. But a lot of folks know the “Whitehead” name from his time as assessor (2000-08). Early on, local polling actually put Whitehead far ahead of the other two candidates. Since then, Weaver has spent a ton of coin and current Property Assessor Phil Ballard (who is term-limited) has started to get out the word. Weaver has caught up and, I believe, some polls even had him neck-and-neck with Whitehead or even ahead. Still, with gun to my head I think Whitehead narrowly edges him. That said, I suspect if Whitehead does win, there may be a spot for Weaver if he wants it.

DEMOCRATS:

County Commission 1st: Rick Staples easily defeats Evelyn Gill

Why: On paper, Gill looks like a great candidate. But, she’s not working it like Staples is. The guy is everywhere and he has name recognition from previous campaigns. That said, he might have some problems in the general election.

County Commission 2nd: Laura Kildare beats Cheri Siler

Why: Siler suspended her campaign in December and hasn't done anything to get her name out. That said, she's told supporters if she wins, she'll run in August.

SCHOOL BOARD:

District 2: Grant Standefer defeats Jennifer Owen

Why: Grant has more money and more name recognition. Also, Superintendent Jim McIntyre is no longer a factor, since he’s stepping down in July. Candidates in the past were able to use him – good or bad – as an election platform. They can’t do it this time and I think that hurts Jennifer. That said, she could do the job as well.

District 5: Susan Horn and Buddy Pelot force a runoff. Lori Ann Boudreaux comes in third

Why: I just don’t see Horn or Pelot, who each have more name recognition and coin than Boudreaux, getting the 50 percent plus one vote. One of them might come close, but I expect it to go to the runoff in August. That said, I could be wrong. Heh.

On a side note, I’m pretty sure Tennesseans to give Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton the presidential nods.

Knox GOP/Dems to host watch events

The Knox County GOP on election night (that's tomorrow for all you still under a rock) will hold its annual shin dig once again at the Summit Ballroom of the downtown Crowne Plaza Hotel.

The event is free.

The election returns will be shown in real time on a large screen.

A majority of the Republican candidates appearing on the ballot will attend and more than likely make nomination acceptance speeches.

The Democrats will hold a similar event at the downtown Knoxville Marriott.

Polls are open from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. tomorrow.

The two events start around 7ish.

Tune in to WBIR 10News for the most comprehensive coverage of the event and check out wbir.com for more Tuesday night.

Marco Rubio stopping in Knoxville

Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images, 2016 Getty Images

GOP presidential candidate Marco Rubio is scheduled to make a campaign stop in Knoxville on Monday.

Tennessee's presidential primaries are held on Super Tuesday, making the Monday stop in the Scruffy City very timely.

The rally will be held at TAC Air Knoxville. The event page says doors will open 8:30 a.m., with the event beginning at 9:30 a.m.

Gov. Bill Haslam endorsed Rubio on Thursday. A spokesperson for the governor said he will be at the Monday event in Knoxville.

“To win in November, conservatives need a candidate who inspires Americans from all backgrounds,” said the two-term governor in a statement. “With Marco standing next to Hillary Clinton on a debate stage, the choice between the future and the past will be clear to every American."

Former U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., also announced Thursday that he is now backing Rubio.

No word on who current Tennessee Sens. Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker will endorse.
Rubio is a Florida senator perceived as appealing more to the mainstream GOP.

John Kasich will also make a campaign stop in Knoxville, though he will be here on Saturday at a closed event for the Knox County Republican Party's annual Lincoln Day Dinner.

On the other side of the aisle, Hillary Clinton is slated to campaign in Nashville this weekend. She is the heavy favorite to win the Democratic primary in the Volunteer state.

Tennessee to play big role Tuesday

Just days before Super Tuesday, political experts weigh in on Tennessee's role.

The state has already tallied up historic highs in early voting, and more presidential candidates are set to visit.

"We've had Ben Carson. We've had Jeb Bush. We've had Ted Cruz, Donald Trump. Now we've got John Kasich," Knox County GOP Chairman Buddy Burkhardt said. "East Tennessee is definitely in play in this presidential election."

Hillary Clinton is heading to Nashville on Sunday, and John Kasich will be in Knoxville this Saturday.

Donald Trump is stopping in Millington, north of Memphis, on Saturday.
Marco Rubio will make a campaign stop in Knoxville on Monday morning as well. Gov. Bill

Haslam announced his endorsement of Rubio Thursday.

"Endorsements are important in a lot of cases, but I don't think that's the tell all end all," Burkhardt said.

"The personal visit does make a difference, not a huge difference," Mark Harmon, UT journalism professor, said. "But it's important everything from fundraising to rallying your supporters to showing you care."

Many gathered at Scruffy City Hall to support Sanders Thursday.

"The more people that get out to vote, the higher the turnout, the better it's going to be for Bernie," Tyrrell said. "We're really encouraged by the higher voting numbers."

"Tennessee's going to go Republican," Burkhardt said. "It's which candidate's going to get the most delegates out of it."

No matter who wins what, it's clear Tennessee has a heavy hand in nominations this year.

"We give a substantial number of delegates," Harmon said. "As long as we do, and as long as the polls aren't terribly lopsided, the candidates will come here."

Lawsuit filed to stop Midway park

A local activist group has filed a lawsuit to stop the proposed Midway Business Park, saying it will endanger the water underneath the proposed East Knox County site.

The move comes two months after county leaders officially paved the way to get the project up and running.

The complaint, filed in Knox County Chancery Court, says the more than 300 acres just off I-40 near Strawberry Plains sits directly above an aquifer that the nearby residents use and any intense development will jeopardize it.

“We all drink out of that aquifer and they don’t care,” said Bob Wolfenbarger, president of the 8th District Preservation Association. “It will destroy the aquifer no matter what they do there.”

The non-profit group filed the lawsuit Friday against the Development Corporation of Knox County, the county, the Knoxville-Knox County Metropolitan Planning Commission and the Knox County Commission.

The lawsuit notes that the area is composed of “high undulating terrain containing numerous sinkholes” and is “unsuitable for large-scale development, as reflected in the East Knox County Sector Plan of 1995.”

On Tuesday, Wolfenbarger told WBIR 10News that “nothing in the area has changed.”

“This just happens to be a bad site and they don’t want to believe it,” he said.

MORE: Copy of the complaint

Knox County Law Director Richard “Bud” Armstrong declined to comment, saying his office received a copy of the lawsuit late Monday and he hasn’t had time to review it.

Todd Napier, president of the Development Corporation, said: “We’re very disappointed. We continue to have some individuals who are working to delay or stop a project that will ultimately be to the benefit to Knox County. We will vigorously defend the actions that have been taken and move on.”

The Knox County Commission in December voted to change the sector plan that governs the zoning for the property to allow for an industrial park.

Officials with the Development Corporation, which bought the land in 2006, say the project could attract a large-scale manufacturer or distributor, and bring in $200 million in wages.

Business leaders stress that the property is among the last large tracts available that can be used to promote business park developments.

Task force seeking public input on Knox County safety center proposal

Knox County leaders want the public to weigh in on a plan to combat issues of chronic mental illness, substance abuse and jail overcrowding.

For years, officials have engaged in talks to build a safety center that houses and treats the mentally ill who are arrested for nonviolent crimes. The current proposal is to create the Knox County Safety Center.

Vivian Underwood-Shipe is the community representative on the safety center task force. The group is comprised of county commissioners and members of the Knox County Sheriff’s Office and the District Attorney General’s Office.

RELATED: Take the safety center survey

RELATED: Knox County leaders meet to discuss Safety Center
She is overseeing a survey to get the public's input.

MORE: Knox County to revist talks about safety center for mentally ill

“I just wanted to put together something brief so that the community would have a way to provide us input,” she said. “The safety center is something we definitely need. We don’t have to reinvent the wheel, but we have to do it right.”

She said the task force will talk about the results of the survey when it meets again at 1 p.m. on March 14 in the Large Assembly Room of the City County Building.

Commissioner Thomas starts own blog

Knox County Commission Vice Chairman Bob Thomas (many say future mayor Bob Thomas) has started his own blog.

"I am proud to announce the first issue of my monthly blog to keep the citizens of Knox County up to date on the latest meetings of the Knox County Commission and other items of interest," he said in an email to the ol' Porch.

You can find that bad boy RIGHT SMACK HERE.

(For the record, it's called "Bob Thomas Knox.")

Projections: Knox BOE budget on pace for $14M increase for upcoming FY

Chris Caldwell address the BOE

The Knox County school system’s upcoming budget could jump by as much as $14 million when officials put together next fiscal year’s spending plan, according to revenue projections.

During Wednesday’s Board of Education meeting, county finance director Chris Caldwell told school leaders that property and sales tax revenues are up, as is the Basic Education Program allocation from the state.

The school system currently operates on a $438 million budget.

Caldwell said property tax revenues project a roughly $1.6 million increase, raising total collections to $96.8 million. He noted that sales tax collections are on pace to bring in an additional $5.1 million, which would raise those collections to $143 million.

In addition, officials are expecting an additional $11.4 million in BEP funding form the state, which would increase that total to more than $194 million.

Caldwell said “other revenue sources” would eventually lead to an overall $14 million increase if “everything remains on pace.”

If the projections hold steady, that could lead to a $452 million spending plan for the school system’s upcoming fiscal year, which begins July 1. The overall difference amounts to about a 3.2 percent increase from the current budget.

BOE to pick interim leader in April

The Knox County Board of Education on Wednesday agreed to pick an interim superintendent to oversee the school system by the first week of April and then have that person in place on July 11 – the Monday after current Superintendent Jim McIntyre officially steps down.

The board unanimously agreed to let member Terry Hill oversee the vetting process. Board members and the public who wish to submit names should send them to Terri Coatney, the board’s executive assistant.

Hill will interview the candidates and then submit a recommendation for the board to discuss during an April 4 workshop. Members would then vote on the appointment April 6.

After that, the BOE’s chairman, Doug Harris, would have until April 17 to negotiate a contract with the selection.

McIntyre, who was hired in spring 2008, agreed in early January to step down on July 8 in exchange for a one-year severance. The move came a little more than a month after he agreed to a two-year contract extension that pays him $227,000 annually.

As superintendent, McIntyre oversees a $438 million budget, 90 schools and a 7,500-person workforce that includes almost 5,000 teachers.

Board members during Wednesday’s discussion said they were looking for someone familiar with the school system’s budget, schools and staff.

Vice Chairwoman Tracie Sanger also suggested that the interim superintendent “already have a good relationship” with Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett, and the board members.

Burchett, who first took office in 2010, and McIntyre often butted heads over finances.

Board members said at some point later in the year they will talk more about putting together the process to pick a permanent replacement. The interim candidate cannot hold that position, members said.

After the brief meeting to talk about the interim selection process, a number of officials said they heard that some board members are interested in nominating Buzz Thomas, the president of the Great Schools Partnership, a local tax-exempt organization that serves as an advocate for the KCS and help raise money to support a number of programs for the system.

KCS expected to receive additional $11.4 million in state BEP funding

Knox County Schools is expected to receive additional $11.4 million in Basic Education Program funding from the state.

The Governor's Office will begin allocating the extra money beginning next fiscal year, which starts July 1.

The school currently receives about $182 million a year, according to Knox County finance director Chris Caldwell, who said the additional funding is tied to a 1 percent student enrollment increase during the 2015-16 year.

MORE: BEP budget for FY17

The governor's office is expected to allocate an additional $26 million in BEP funding to Shelby County Schools, which is a public school district in Memphis, Tenn.

The BEP makes up a good portion of the school system’s annual more than $438 million budget.

For years local officials have fought for an increase in the county’s portion from the state.

The windfall comes at a time when county and school officials have been at odds for the past few years over the school system’s funding.

Here's a list of other East Tennessee school districts receiving more than $1 million in additional BEP funding (rounded two decimal places):

• Anderson County: $1.38 million
• Blount County: $2.91 million
• Maryville City: $1.15 million
• Cocke County: $1.28 million
• Cumberland County: $1.57 million
• Grainger County: $1.23 million
• Greene County: $1.26 million
• Hamblen County: $3.71 million
• Hawkins County: $1.91 million
• Jefferson County: $2.41 million
• Monroe County: $1.36 million
• Rhea County: $1.19 million
• Scott County: $1.11 million
• Sevier County: $1.31 million

Voting begins for TDOT sign contest

Voting begins tomorrow (Feb. 16) to choose the winners from the Tennessee Department of Transportation’s Dynamic Message Sign Contest, according to the state.

TDOT received nearly 3,000 entries for possible safety messages for the overhead signs located across Tennessee. The entries were narrowed down to 15 messages that cover safety issues such as distracted driving, seatbelt usage, impaired driving, speeding, and aggressive driving.

To vote, click RIGHT SMACK HERE.

Voting ends March 1.

The winning messages will be posted online the following week, and will be placed in rotation to run on the overhead Dynamic Message Signs statewide throughout the year.  Some of the entries were modified slightly to fit guidelines for the signs.

A total of 190 Dynamic Message Signs are located in the state’s four urban areas (Chattanooga, Knoxville, Memphis, Nashville), and in some rural areas across the state.

The main purpose of the signs is to alert motorists of incidents, lane blockages, hazardous road conditions, or Amber Alerts.

In 2012, TDOT became the first DOT in the nation to display roadway fatality numbers on the overhead signs. In addition to the fatality statistics, safety messages are displayed during off-peak travel times.

School groundbreakings rescheduled

Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett, along with Knox County Schools Superintendent Jim McIntyre,and a bunch of other officials, will formally break ground at the sites of the new Gibbs and Hardin Valley Middle Schools on Feb. 19, with the Gibbs event happening at 11 a.m. and the Hardin Valley event at 1 p.m.

Parking for the Gibbs Middle School groundbreaking will be very limited on-site, so members of the public planning to attend are asked to park at Gibbs Ruritan Park, 7827 Tazewell Pike, and take a shuttle to the event location.

Shuttles will begin running at 10 a.m. Members of the media may park at the end of the cul-de-sac access road behind Gibbs Elementary School off Tazewell Pike.